P is for Price: News stories from Thailand, India, and Tunisia illustrate the problem.
Much concern about P sustainability surrounds not only the pollution impacts of P as it exits farm fields, feed lots, and cities but also the prospects of “P scarcity,” a topic that can generate a lot of confusion. For example, when in 2010 the IFDC released its (strongly upward) estimate of P reserves in Morocco, it would seem that issues of “P scarcity” should go away (at least for a century or two). But the importance of P for farmers and food production is not related to how much P is actually “in the ground” but instead relates to whether or not you can afford to buy it. And that depends on (among other things) what country you’re in, whether or not the P can reach you, the willingness of P-exporting countries (within decades to be dominated by Morocco, of course) to sell, your own ability to pay, the political situation in P-producing countries, and various other complexities, including natural disasters, along the supply chain. Several of these complexities are illustrated in a series of recent news stories.
Riots in city of Gafsa have disrupted P mining activities
“Curfew in Tunisian towns after violence” (in the turbulence of the “Arab Spring”, rioting in the P mining town of Gafsa, has placed much of the P industry of Tunisia into uncertainty.) Link
“Thailand’s Flooding to Push down China’s Export Volume of Phosphoric Acid” (illustrates how natural events can disrupt long supply chains for P fertilizer) Link
“India fertilizer prices surge 65% in June-Nov 2011″ (increasing global P prices combine with weakening of Indian currency reduce access to P by Indian farmers) Link
The story line, then, is that the key issue for world farmers seeking to maintain and increase yield is that “access to P,” which is a function of its price coupled to local purchasing power, is likely to continue to decline as prices continue to rise (due to growing demand for feed the people of 2050 and due to oligopoly pricing from P-producing countries). It would seem strategic, especially for countries like India, to find a new paradigm for P fertilizer that sources P fertilizer internally via, for example, methods of ecological sanitation (at village scale) and wastewater treatment recovery (in more developed urban areas). And everyone gets cleaner rivers, lakes, and oceans AND safer drinking water. So, what’s holding us back?
Is P trading coming to your town?
Development of biogeochemical markets is not, it seems, confined to carbon. Various movements seem to be afoot to try to implement P trading markets to help in managing P discharges and eutrophication issues. Here’s a example: LINK And here: LINK.
The basic idea is that a municipality (or other entity) that exceeds federal guidelines for nutrient release, for example from its wastewater treatment plant, could sell emission rights for that “extra P” according to market prices. The transactions would be handled via private brokerages. It would seem very cool to connect such efforts to P fertilizer markets, so that the incentives come not only from regulatory measures to avoid pollution but also from profits generated from re-sale of the P (and N).
There are efforts to evaluate and implement such markets (also for use with nitrogen) in 13 US states and also some localities in Australia. Do any readers know of others?
A full report on these is available via the World Resources Institute. LINK.
Saving the P from livestock!
In a review paper just published in the journal Chemosphere, Bruce Rittmann (of ASU) noted that, globally, the P “lost” in animal waste amounts to about 40% of the P mined for fertilizer production every year. And, of course, this P results in massive water quality degradation in both lakes and estuaries and coastal oceans So, how to get this stuff back, thus keeping it out of our precious water supply?
A press release from Bion Environmental Technologies, Inc, describes their nutrient recovery technologies coming on line for on-site nutrient recovery from feedlot & dairy operations. The company claims 85% recovery of nitrogen and 100% recovery of P. Impressive indeed. The press release emphasizes the benefits to water quality as well as the renewable energy produced from the biogas part of the technology. However, note from the diagram that the process also recovers the nutrients into solid and liquid form for reapplication to agricultural fields.
One thing I do wonder however is if the biosolid and liquid nutrient recovery means that the recovered nutrients are heavy and thus can’t be shipped very far. (This is the same problem that raw manure has.) Better to recover into struvite or other forms that can be more readily shipped and used like dry fertilizer? In any case, looks like a very promising approach indeed, and “just what the doctor ordered” for the Chesapeake. And this kind of thing could go a long way towards diversifying the P supply for fertilizer production.
Garden Center Magazine: goodbye phosphorus!
“The company’s findings showed that most established lawns have enough phosphorous, and the element is essentially “recycled” when cuttings are left on the lawn to break down naturally.”
via Garden Center Magazine : Farewell phosphorous.*
This article describes the impending bans of P from lawn maintenance fertilizers for many states in the USA. It’s fascinating to note that even a fertilizer maker like Scotts (makers of “MiracleGroTM”) would be able to recognize P excess when it sees it. Unfortunately, for crops one can’t leave everything on the field to be recycled – the crop itself of course needs to be removed. But this does point out how return of unharvested biomass can maintain P balance and avoid unnecessary fertilizer application.
A couple of interesting side notes: Scotts fertilizer for starting a lawn would still contain P and Scotts brand of “organic” fertilizer, which is based on manure, would still contain P. Not entirely clear to me how that helps with the P runoff problem, but there you are.
Also fascinating is the fact that, in Wisconsin, P-containing Milorganite fertilizer will still be allowed under pending P ban legislation. Milorganite is the trade-name of a fertilizer produced in Milwaukee from biosolids from wastewater. It’s been produced for nearly 100 years. Old school sustainability!
*SIC: It’s “phosphorus” NOT “phosphorous”. Urgh.
So where’s the Mississippi’s P come from anyway?
A new, county-by-county, analysis of the sources of P entering the Mississippi River drainage indicates that understanding where the P comes from isn’t as simple as asking where the fertilizer gets dumped or the manure spread (Story link). It turns out that often the largest P runoff losses in the Mississippi River drainage came from areas where net farm P balance was negative (i.e. where farmers removed more P in crops than they applied in fertilizer). This likely reflects the fact that such areas are the most intensively farmed and therefore subjected to the most intensive tilling practices, leading, in turn, to the most soil loss (with its P). Not good.
The study also identified major cities as hot spots of P inputs to the drainage, as not all municipalities have advanced wastewater treatment to remove P.
The study was led by U Illinois biogeochemist Mark David.
An interview with investor Brian Ostroff appears in the right-leaning news site “Right Side News” (link) and highlights political uncertainties in north Africa and the under-appreciated importance of phosphate as a possible investment opportunity. Certainly such advice needs to be examined with great care but it is interesting to note in the interview his view that investors have already considered investment angles on potash (potassium), which has a broader range of supply sources, while P is still under the radar. It’s also interesting to note the geological / geochemical subtleties influencing his investment view: he notes that sedimentary P deposits often carry significant contaminants (and thus need a fair amount of expensive “cleaning up”) while igneous P deposits, though lower in P content, have lower contaminant levels and can therefore be more attractive for exploitation.
Yet more P needed in Corn Belt? New IPNI report.
A new report from the International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) indicates that median soil P levels in North America have declined quite a bit from 2005 to 2010 (by about 20%, from ~31 ppm to ~26 ppm). Here’s a link to a new article about the report (http://tinyurl.com/6duzw2d) and the report itself (http://tinyurl.com/3pc6v6v). Regional differences were notable and declines were particularly strong in corn-growing regions of the upper Midwest (Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan). Interestingly, states along the Eastern seaboard (Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut) seemed to show significant net accumulation of soil P. The authors include Dr Phil Mikkelson, who participated in the recent Sustainable Phosphorus Summit at Tempe.
The study is impressive, as it involves a summary of data from 4.4 million (!) soil samples. Also included are data on other elements, such as Zn, K, and S.
Decline in soil P values from 2001 (blue) to 2005 (red) to 2010 (green). The decline is most consistent in the frequency of high soil P values.
What’s interesting here, of course, is that large quantities of P are already “locked up” in unavailable forms in agricultural soils, a legacy of past accumulations of fertilizer phosphorus. Continuous application of more P is needed to provide a relatively small portion of fresh, “temporary” P that crop plants can grab. This report indicates that corn farmers must, if they wish to avoid yield declines, keep adding and adding more and more to support sufficient corn production, as corn is one of the most P intensive of crops. If fertilizer prices begin to rise and farmers cut back accordingly, it seems that they will have little “slack” left in soil P reserves to buffer themselves against yield decline. Not good news for the bottom line and not good news for food production.
Post-modern Porta-potty leads to P discovery!
Here’s an ironic story:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/dunny-sits-on-hidden-riches/story-e6frfh4f-1226031577131
A phosphorus exploration company dug a hole to make a temporary pit toilet for their workers. When they dug, they quickly hit upon layers of P-rich nodules in an area they hadn’t expected. This led to changes in the exploration plan and likely to the proposed mine.
An extra irony is that the article’s author, in writing “with nitrogen and urea being added to the hole daily”, seems not to know that excrement and urine also contain P.
Anyway, talk about “recycling”!
Missed the Sustainable Phosphorus Summit?
Then check out our conference webpage. We have uploaded some of the speaker presentations and lots of videos created before, during, and after the event.
The Phoenix Phosphorus Declaration: consensus on scope of P sustainability challenge
The Sustainable Phosphorus Summit @ ASU
One of the products of the recently completed international Sustainable Phosphorus Summit was a “consensus statement”, crafted over several days with input from the participants and shaped by a consensus committee made up of a rep from all the summit working groups. We’re calling this the “Phoenix Phosphorus Declaration”, even though the summit took place (technically) in nearby Tempe. Phoenix is a good “meme”, as it conjures up a beautiful and powerful bird rising from the ashes. I suppose what we’re aiming for here is a vision of an emerging phosphorus economy that uses P more efficiently and recaptures and returns it to agriculture, making a beautiful loop that sustains agricultural productivity while protecting freshwaters and the oceans from excessive P runoff. The statement is provided in its entirety below. A final poll of 55 core participants in the summit revealed near-unanimity: 54 respondents agreed with the statement; 1 disagreed. (As I just told my BIO100 class in the context of global climate change science: “consensus” means “broad agreement”, not “unanimous”.) So, what do you think? What are the next steps?
“The Phoenix Phosphorus Declaration
We have achieved broad agreement on important issues surrounding phosphorus sustainability challenges and opportunities and seek to raise global awareness about them among all those with a stake in the future of food, water, and the biosphere. All human beings, and indeed all living species, have this stake.
We find:
- Essential and limited. Phosphorus is essential for all life because it is part of critical molecules like DNA. It is a limited natural resource needed to sustain the vitality and productivity of all ecosystems, including farms.
- Imbalanced cycle. Mining of phosphorus for fertilizer production has massively altered the cycling of phosphorus on Earth. This increased phosphorus use has greatly expanded global capacity for food production but also has led to amplified phosphorus losses from cities, towns, and farms that can lead to degraded water quality, impair freshwater and marine fisheries, and alter natural biodiversity.
- Food security. Phosphorus has a key role in global food security, as reliable access to affordable fertilizer can allow farmers to improve yields and increase quality of life, especially in the developing world.
- Recycle and reuse. Currently, much phosphorus is lost in crop waste, food spoilage, and animal & human waste. Recycling this phosphorus can reduce geopolitical and other uncertainties surrounding phosphorus fertilizer markets and enhance farmer prosperity.
- Reduce demand. Phosphorus natural resources can be extended by improving efficiency of use in agriculture, reducing erosion, limiting losses in mining & industry, and eating lower in the food chain.
- Interconnected. Phosphorus stewardship is coupled to other major global sustainability challenges, including those involving energy, water, and other chemical elements.
- Entrepreneurship. There are great economic opportunities to innovate and create new industries for phosphorus supply diversification and for improved agricultural phosphorus efficiency. However, the suitability of such measures will differ for different environments, cultures, and contexts.
By closing the human phosphorus cycle and transforming wastes into resources and uncertainty into security, humanity can implement a “new alchemy” in which people become more secure and enjoy greater well-being in a healthy environment.
Participants in the 2011 Sustainable Phosphorus Summit
Tempe, Arizona, USA”
