P is for Price: News stories from Thailand, India, and Tunisia illustrate the problem.
Much concern about P sustainability surrounds not only the pollution impacts of P as it exits farm fields, feed lots, and cities but also the prospects of “P scarcity,” a topic that can generate a lot of confusion. For example, when in 2010 the IFDC released its (strongly upward) estimate of P reserves in Morocco, it would seem that issues of “P scarcity” should go away (at least for a century or two). But the importance of P for farmers and food production is not related to how much P is actually “in the ground” but instead relates to whether or not you can afford to buy it. And that depends on (among other things) what country you’re in, whether or not the P can reach you, the willingness of P-exporting countries (within decades to be dominated by Morocco, of course) to sell, your own ability to pay, the political situation in P-producing countries, and various other complexities, including natural disasters, along the supply chain. Several of these complexities are illustrated in a series of recent news stories.
Riots in city of Gafsa have disrupted P mining activities
“Curfew in Tunisian towns after violence” (in the turbulence of the “Arab Spring”, rioting in the P mining town of Gafsa, has placed much of the P industry of Tunisia into uncertainty.) Link
“Thailand’s Flooding to Push down China’s Export Volume of Phosphoric Acid” (illustrates how natural events can disrupt long supply chains for P fertilizer) Link
“India fertilizer prices surge 65% in June-Nov 2011″ (increasing global P prices combine with weakening of Indian currency reduce access to P by Indian farmers) Link
The story line, then, is that the key issue for world farmers seeking to maintain and increase yield is that “access to P,” which is a function of its price coupled to local purchasing power, is likely to continue to decline as prices continue to rise (due to growing demand for feed the people of 2050 and due to oligopoly pricing from P-producing countries). It would seem strategic, especially for countries like India, to find a new paradigm for P fertilizer that sources P fertilizer internally via, for example, methods of ecological sanitation (at village scale) and wastewater treatment recovery (in more developed urban areas). And everyone gets cleaner rivers, lakes, and oceans AND safer drinking water. So, what’s holding us back?
